Week 1 · Sunday, September 13 · 1:00 PM ET
Why This Game Matters
Baltimore rolls into Indy as one of the Super Bowl favorites, debuting rookie head coach Jesse Minter and a healthy Lamar Jackson after a 2025 that fell apart around them. The Colts, meanwhile, are still explaining themselves after an 8-2 start cratered into a seven-game losing streak once Daniel Jones went down with a torn Achilles — and now Jones is back to find out immediately whether last year was bad luck or something structural. A Week 1 loss doesn't sink either season, but it sets the tone: is Baltimore's fixed defense for real, and can Indianapolis prove it belongs anywhere near the AFC South favorite tag oddsmakers hung on it.
Real Player Matchups
- IND pass rusher Laiatu Latu (8.5 sacks, 20 QB hits in 2025) vs. a BAL offensive line that allowed 45 sacks last season.
- BAL's Zay Flowers drew a 29% target share in 2025 (+46 receiving EPA) against a IND defense ranked #16 of 32 in EPA allowed.
- IND's Tyler Warren drew a 21% target share in 2025 (+16 receiving EPA) against a BAL defense ranked #21 of 32 in EPA allowed.
Real 2025 season production (nflverse), a prior-season baseline pending real 2026 games.
Key Matchups
- Lamar Jackson and Baltimore's retooled front, headlined by new addition Trey Hendrickson, against a Colts offensive line already down projected starter Luke Tenuta (knee) and trying to protect a Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles
- Sauce Gardner and Indianapolis' revamped secondary against Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and camp standout rookie Ja'Kobi Lane in Baltimore's receiving corps
- Jonathan Taylor, fresh off his in-camp extension, against a Ravens run defense that's still waiting on Nnamdi Madubuike's return from neck surgery
- Baltimore's makeshift center situation — Ethan Pocic or Jovaughn Gwyn stepping in after Danny Pinter's apparent torn patellar tendon — against a Colts D-line getting DeForest Buckner back up to speed
Injury Report
Danny Pinter · BAL C
Out
Carted off with an apparent torn patellar tendon during the Aug. 19 joint practice against the Vikings while competing to start at center; expected to miss extended time.
Nnamdi Madubuike · BAL DT
Recovering
Suffered a serious neck injury in Week 2 of 2025 that ended his season; underwent surgery this offseason, with doctors optimistic he can play in 2026.
Alec Pierce · IND WR
Limited
An offseason ankle injury has limited the presumptive No. 1 receiver for much of training camp.
DeForest Buckner · IND DL
Ramping Up
Working back gradually after neck surgery that cost him significant time in 2025.
Charvarius Ward · IND CB
Out
Back injury kept him from traveling for the preseason opener at New England.
DJ Giddens · IND RB
Out
Lingering hamstring injury following the preseason opener.
CJ Allen · IND LB
Out
Rookie linebacker's camp has been interrupted by two separate hamstring injuries.
Luke Tenuta · IND OL
Out
Knee injury suffered in the preseason opener against New England.
Series History
All-time: Indianapolis leads the all-time series 11-7 (9-6 in the regular season, 2-1 in the playoffs) since the Ravens' 1996 founding.
Last meeting: Their last regular-season meeting came Sept. 24, 2023 at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Colts won 22-19 in overtime. Matt Gay hit his fourth field goal of 50-plus yards, an NFL record, while Justin Tucker's potential game-winning 61-yard attempt at the end of regulation clanged off the upright.
- · The teams' most memorable playoff meeting came in the 2012 AFC Wild Card round, when Baltimore beat Indianapolis 24-9 in Ray Lewis's final home game and Andrew Luck's playoff debut.
Weather
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis has a retractable roof — weather is unlikely to be a significant factor.
Records & Rankings on the Line
- · Baltimore enters the season ranked No. 2 in the power rankings and among the Super Bowl favorites; Indianapolis sits at No. 22 after last year's second-half collapse.
- · The Colts were installed as modest AFC South favorites with a 7.5-win total, but that projection rests on Daniel Jones staying healthy after his Dec. 7 Achilles tear.
- · Indianapolis has won the last meeting between these teams (2023), but Baltimore has won the more recent head-to-head in the playoffs and holds a 1-2 all-time postseason mark against the Colts.
The Desk Weighs In
Duke Callahan
BAL -10
Reasoning not yet published for this pick.
Vega Okafor
BAL -8
"This is the one where I'll tell you the numbers don't back the line. Neither offense nor defense on either side cracked the top 10 in EPA last season, and Indianapolis actually grades out fractionally ahead. I'm staying on Baltimore for the roster-health gap, not the efficiency numbers — full disclosure."
Sunny Marchetti
BAL -7
Reasoning not yet published for this pick.
Reese Thackeray
BAL -7
Reasoning not yet published for this pick.
Priest Dunbar
BAL -6
Reasoning not yet published for this pick.