Power Rankings

Los Angeles Rams

Consensus preseason No. 1 after adding Myles Garrett to a defense that already had the reigning MVP and DPOY; win total climbed to 11.5 with the Over favored. The efficiency numbers back the hype: LA's offense ranked #2 in the league in EPA/play last season, the real foundation under the Garrett addition.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson reports healthy after an injury-wrecked 2025, and the Hendrickson signing fixes a defense that cratered late last year — a top-3 Super Bowl favorite near an 11-win total. Worth a gut-check, though — neither side actually ranked inside the top 10 in EPA/play last season (offense 12th, defense 21st), so the Super Bowl-favorite billing is running ahead of the 2025 numbers.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is still the engine, DJ Moore reunites with new HC Joe Brady, and books have Buffalo tied with Baltimore as the second-best Super Bowl favorite behind the Rams. The offense has the receipts: #3 in the league in EPA/play last season, trailing only New England and LA.

Seattle Seahawks

Still a top contender as defending champs, but real roster turnover since the title run has them ranked behind LA entering Week 1. The banner was won on defense, not offense — Seattle's D ranked #2 in EPA/play allowed last season, while the offense was middle-of-the-pack (#13).

Kansas City Chiefs

A healthy, cleared Patrick Mahomes and a retooled secondary around new CB Mansoor Delane keep bounce-back hopes alive after a 6-11 collapse ended their AFC West streak. A real caution flag sits underneath the optimism: neither the offense (#11) nor defense (#12) actually cracked the top 10 in EPA/play last season.

New England Patriots

One of the two biggest projected win-total jumps in the league, now on the road for a Super Bowl LX rematch to open the year. The number that should scare the rest of the league: New England's offense led the NFL in EPA/play last season, by a real margin.

Denver Broncos

NFL.com and ESPN both slot Denver in the top three after a 14-3 season, even as oddsmakers price in some regression with a 9.5-win total. The 2025 numbers back the buzz — Denver's defense ranked #6 in the league in EPA/play allowed, exactly the unit that swept Kansas City.

Houston Texans

PFT's power rankings have Houston at No. 3 overall on the strength of an elite Will Anderson Jr.-led defense, with the retooled O-line the swing factor. The numbers agree: Houston's defense ranked #1 in the NFL in EPA/play allowed last season, the best in the league by that measure.

Philadelphia Eagles

Reshaped after trading A.J. Brown and installing a new play-caller, but still priced around +1800 Super Bowl odds on the strength of four straight 11-plus-win seasons. A real, if less-discussed, strength: Philadelphia's defense ranked #8 in EPA/play allowed last season.

San Francisco 49ers

A 12-win, playoff-caliber roster on paper, but Kyle Shanahan's car accident and a string of camp injuries (Pearsall, Kittle, McCaffrey) inject real uncertainty. The efficiency data adds a wrinkle the record doesn't show — a top-10 offense (#6) paired with a real defensive soft spot (#24 in EPA allowed), even before the camp injuries.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow calls this his most talented roster yet after Cincinnati traded for Dexter Lawrence and replaced Trey Hendrickson with Boye Mafe up front. The real worry isn't the offense — it's a defense that ranked #29 of 32 in EPA/play allowed last season, an issue the Dexter Lawrence trade alone probably doesn't fix.

Detroit Lions

ESPN's FPI ranks Detroit 8th overall and favors them to win a wide-open NFC North behind a Jahmyr Gibbs extension and a healthy Aidan Hutchinson. The efficiency numbers match the FPI love: Detroit's offense ranked #7 in the league in EPA/play last season.

Green Bay Packers

A top-tier offense behind Jordan Love, but the season opens with Micah Parsons on PUP and a realistic Week 6 target return for the ACL trade acquisition. Real production backs the reputation — Green Bay's offense ranked #4 in the league in EPA/play last season, Parsons or no Parsons in Week 1.

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson's Year 2 team won the NFC North last year but drew the league's toughest projected schedule as the reward. The offensive numbers are legitimately good — #8 in the league in EPA/play last season — which makes that brutal schedule the real swing factor.

Los Angeles Chargers

Back-to-back playoff berths under Jim Harbaugh, healthy tackles, and a new McDaniel-run offense — tempered by a serious camp injury to the new starting center. The efficiency split tells the story: a real top-10 defense (#7 in EPA allowed) carrying an offense that ranked just #25 last season, which is exactly why the new McDaniel system is the thing to watch.

Dallas Cowboys

An intact starting offensive line and quiet continuity have Dallas rated above where the offseason noise suggested. There's a real red flag under the offensive-line optimism: Dallas's defense ranked dead last in the NFL in EPA/play allowed last season — 32nd of 32.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Defending AFC South champs under Liam Coen, but oddsmakers are skeptical of a repeat given a tougher schedule and regression concerns. The defense backs up the division-champ billing — #3 in the league in EPA/play allowed last season, a big reason they held the AFC South.

Pittsburgh Steelers

A genuinely new era — Mike Tomlin's 19-year run is over, Aaron Rodgers says this is his last season, and most boards still have Pittsburgh around 18th. Nothing in the efficiency numbers screams contender or pretender — both offense (#15) and defense (#18) graded out squarely in the middle of the pack last season.

Washington Commanders

A year removed from an NFC title-game run, Washington is banking on a healthy Jayden Daniels and two new coordinators to reverse a 5-12 slide. The real concern the record doesn't capture: Washington's defense ranked #30 of 32 in EPA/play allowed last season, well below the NFC title-game standard.

New Orleans Saints

An undefeated December behind Tyler Shough and a softer 2026 schedule have bettors bullish on a bounce-back after a 2-10 start. The efficiency data cuts against the bettor optimism a bit — New Orleans's offense ranked #27 in the league last season, even with that undefeated December.

New York Giants

New coach John Harbaugh, a healthy Malik Nabers, and undisputed starter Jaxson Dart give New York a real shot at climbing out of the NFC East cellar. A real soft spot to watch: New York's defense ranked #25 in EPA/play allowed last season, even with the coaching and QB upgrades.

Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones returns on a two-year deal after a Week 15 Achilles tear unraveled an 8-2 start — modest AFC South favorites with real health uncertainty attached. The offense has real substance behind it — #9 in the league in EPA/play last season — which is exactly what's at risk if Jones's Achilles isn't fully behind him.

Carolina Panthers

First division title in a decade, but a season-ending ACL loss for rookie edge Nic Scourton and a Taylor Moton absence undercut real pass-rush investment. Neither side graded out well in 2025 — offense #26, defense #23 in EPA/play — which makes last year's division title look more like a product of a weak division than a real breakout.

Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson is still elite and Kyler Murray takes over at QB, but a GM-less front office and NFC North depth have Minnesota projected for a last-place finish anyway. The defense is the real story here, not just Jefferson — Minnesota ranked #4 in the league in EPA/play allowed last season, which makes a last-place projection look aggressive on that side of the ball at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Most preseason power rankings have Tampa Bay in the low-to-mid 20s after a stunning second-half collapse cost them the NFC South on a tiebreaker. The efficiency numbers back up the modest ranking — both offense (#20) and defense (#17) sat in the middle third of the league last season.

Atlanta Falcons

An unsettled QB competition and a season-ending ACL loss for rookie EDGE Jalon Walker leave Atlanta looking like a team in transition, not a contender. The offense was a real problem before the QB competition even started — #24 in the league in EPA/play last season.

Tennessee Titans

Robert Saleh's full reset continues to develop Cam Ward, but a shaky preseason debut did little to quiet questions about the Year 2 jump. The numbers are rough across the board — offense #30, defense #28 in EPA/play last season — which is the real substance behind a shaky preseason debut, not just nerves.

Las Vegas Raiders

Klint Kubiak takes over after a 3-14 collapse, with Kirk Cousins bridging to presumptive long-term answer Fernando Mendoza — still viewed as a rebuilding year. The offense wasn't just bad, it was the worst in the league — dead last in EPA/play last season, the real starting point for whatever Kubiak and Cousins try to fix.

Cleveland Browns

A wide-open Watson-vs-Sanders QB competition and the shocking Myles Garrett trade to the Rams leave Cleveland with one of the league's lowest win totals. One real irony in the numbers: the defense Cleveland is rebuilding around actually ranked #5 in the league in EPA/play allowed last season — with Garrett still on it, before the trade.

New York Jets

Aaron Glenn calling his own defense and a QB swap to Geno Smith haven't moved the needle much — most outlooks still project New York among the AFC's weakest teams. The efficiency data doesn't offer much hope either — offense #29, defense #31 in EPA/play last season, bottom-five on both sides of the ball.

Miami Dolphins

A full teardown under first-year coach Jeff Hafley, with over $175M in dead money and the league's second-lowest win total. Both sides graded out below average last season (offense #22, defense #26 in EPA/play), the real numbers underneath a teardown that's now official.

Arizona Cardinals

New coach, a released Kyler Murray, and Jacoby Brissett as the presumptive starter — the NFL's lowest projected win total entering the season. The offense and defense both finished in the bottom third of the league in EPA/play last season (#23 and #27), the real floor this rebuild is starting from.