Pool Picks — Week 1
2026 Week 1 · model ats-grades+injuries/v1 · picks made Sep 11, 2:04 PM ET. The pool is scored against the spread with no confidence points, so every game is worth the same and the number that matters is the line each pick is made against — not a ranking. Season so far: 10-5 against the spread, 1 still to play.
Our confidence is this model's own chance that the pick covers the spread. Yahoo public is a different thing entirely: the share of everyone playing Yahoo Pro Football Pick'em nationally who took the same side. It is not a measure of how sure we are, and it is not this pool's own members — Yahoo publishes the distribution league-wide, at a URL with no group in it, and the same figures appear inside every pool.
It is still worth showing, because the pool pays for being right when the people you are playing against are wrong, and the national split is the closest read on that available before the deadline. Treat it as a proxy: in a small group the members can sit well away from the country as a whole. What this pool's own members actually picked only becomes visible after their picks lock, which is too late to inform one. The split shown was captured Sep 13, 9:55 PM ET, about 8 hours ago.
| Game | Pick | Spread picked against | Our confidence | Yahoo public | Result | Last checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ @ TEN | TEN | TEN -1.5 | 62.1% | 63% | Lost 23–10 | awaiting its first re-check |
| MIA @ LV | MIA | MIA +3.5 | 59.6% | 29% | Lost 13–27 | awaiting its first re-check |
| CLE @ JAX | JAX | JAX -8.5 | 57.0% | 72% | Won 10–34 | awaiting its first re-check |
| GB @ MIN | MIN | MIN -1.5 | 56.9% | 39% | Won 22–39 | awaiting its first re-check |
| BAL @ IND | BAL | BAL -3.5 | 56.4% | 68% | Won 41–23 | awaiting its first re-check |
| CHI @ CAR | CHI | CHI -2.5 | 56.3% | 80% | Won 59–37 | awaiting its first re-check |
| ATL @ PIT | PIT | PIT -3.5 | 56.0% | 80% | Won 13–20 | awaiting its first re-check |
| DEN @ KC | DEN | DEN +3 | 55.5% | 61% | not played | Sep 14, 6:23 AM ET · 14 hours to kickoff |
| DAL @ NYG | NYG | NYG +2.5 | 54.1% | 31% | Won 20–28 | awaiting its first re-check |
| BUF @ HOU | BUF | BUF -1.5 | 54.0% | 67% | Won 36–31 | awaiting its first re-check |
| SF @ LA | SF | SF +3.5 | 53.9% | 28% | Won 27–7 | awaiting its first re-check |
| TB @ CIN | CIN | CIN -3.5 | 53.8% | 62% | Won 27–33 | awaiting its first re-check |
| ARI @ LAC | LAC | LAC -10 | 52.6% | 65% | Lost 26–14 | awaiting its first re-check |
| NE @ SEA | SEA | SEA -3.5 | 52.5% | 69% | Lost 10–13 | awaiting its first re-check |
| WAS @ PHI | WAS | WAS +5 | 52.0% | 21% | Won 22–24 | awaiting its first re-check |
| NO @ DET | DET | DET -7 | 51.7% | 80% | Lost 30–31 | awaiting its first re-check |
Before the deadline
Every pick is read again close to kickoff, against the pool's current spread, the latest injury report and where the market has moved, and is then either kept or changed. All 1 picks were checked again Sep 14, 6:23 AM ET and none of them moved: same pool line, same injury report, same market.
This matters more than it sounds. Every backtest here trained on closing lines, which already contain the week's late news — which is why injuries measured as worthless in them. The line we hold on Tuesday does not contain that news yet, so what arrives in between is the one thing not already priced in. Yahoo stops accepting changes five minutes before each game; this check runs an hour out, to leave room.