Our Projected Scores
How the projections graded
Week 7 Week 7 of 2026, score-ridge/v1.1: 14 of 14 games have a projection from before kickoff. Projected margin MAE is 10.67 points and RMSE is 13.67; the closing spread on the same games has MAE 10.07 and RMSE 13.24. Projected total MAE is 10.57 points and RMSE is 12.48; the closing total on the same games has MAE 10.43 and RMSE 12.43. The projection and the closing spread disagreed on 14 games, and 5 landed. 14 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. The projection and the closing total disagreed on 2 games, and none landed. 2 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. The most-likely total in this version is the posted total stored with the snapshot. It is the ridge totals head only on a row that had no posted total, and that row is marked ridge. On 2 games the spread stored with the projection differs from the closing spread by at least 0.25 points. The grade uses the closing spread. The walk-forward measurement on 2199 games, 2018-2026, remains the bar: margin disagreement 50.07%, total disagreement 49.67%, projected margin MAE 10.23 against the closing line's 9.79. Both disagreement rates sit below the 52.4% break-even at -110. This grade does not replace that measurement.
Season through week 7 Through week 7 of 2026, score-ridge/v1.1: 28 of 60 games have a projection from before kickoff. Projected margin MAE is 8.93 points and RMSE is 11.14; the closing spread on the same games has MAE 8.36 and RMSE 10.83. Projected total MAE is 10.50 points and RMSE is 12.44; the closing total on the same games has MAE 10.43 and RMSE 12.42. The projection and the closing spread disagreed on 28 games, and 12 landed. 28 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. The projection and the closing total disagreed on 2 games, and none landed. 2 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. The most-likely total in this version is the posted total stored with the snapshot. It is the ridge totals head only on a row that had no posted total, and that row is marked ridge. On 3 games the spread stored with the projection differs from the closing spread by at least 0.25 points. The grade uses the closing spread. 32 games had no snapshot, left out. Weeks 1 and 2 are final with no pre-kick snapshot, so those weeks are not in these averages. The walk-forward measurement on 2199 games, 2018-2026, remains the bar: margin disagreement 50.07%, total disagreement 49.67%, projected margin MAE 10.23 against the closing line's 9.79. Both disagreement rates sit below the 52.4% break-even at -110. This grade does not replace that measurement.
One section per week (how the model works), so a finished week can be checked against what happened. Click a week to open it, and any column header to sort. The margin is still our ridge model. The score is that margin split around the total. The most-likely total is the posted total whenever a line is up. Blending our own totals head toward that line was measured, and no mix beat the line: on the walk-forward through 2026 the line's total error was 10.348 points and the raw head's was 11.047, and picking over or under against the line won 48.92% of the time, under the 52.4% a real bet needs. A game with no posted total says "no line posted" and uses the ridge head instead of a made-up number. Rows marked "ridge head" were stored earlier, as score-ridge/v1, and are left as they were. The margin measurement is unchanged: on 2199 games from 2018 to 2026 our margin missed by 10.23 points and the posted line missed by 9.79. Disagreeing with that line won 50.07% of the time. Shown so you can see it, never as a pick.
Week 814 games · 14 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys | Arizona Cardinals 21.8 – 32.7 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys -11.0 | Dallas Cowboys -7.0 | 54.5 | 54.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons 21.9 – 22.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens 24.0 – 30.5 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -6.6 | Buffalo Bills -3.0 | 54.5 | 54.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers | Carolina Panthers 20.9 – 26.6 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers -5.7 | Green Bay Packers -3.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 | Carolina Panthers 19 – 27 Green Bay Packers | 2.3 pts | 1.5 pts |
| Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks | Chicago Bears 22.0 – 24.5 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 | Seattle Seahawks -3.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns 15.4 – 24.1 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers -8.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | 39.5 | 39.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts 19.4 – 27.1 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.6 | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs 19.5 – 21.0 Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos -1.4 | Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Chargers 19.1 – 26.4 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams -7.2 | Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets | Las Vegas Raiders 22.5 – 23.0 New York Jets | New York Jets -0.4 | New York Jets -1.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings 22.3 – 24.2 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions -1.8 | Detroit Lions -3.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots 24.8 – 18.7 Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots -6.0 | New England Patriots -7.0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | Philadelphia Eagles 18.9 – 21.6 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders -2.7 | Washington Commanders -6.0 | 40.5 | 40.5 | not played yet | — | — |
| Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals | Tennessee Titans 18.0 – 28.5 Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals -10.4 | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 | not played yet | — | — |
Week 714 games · 14 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals 23.8 – 22.7 Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals -1.1 | Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 35 – 13 Baltimore Ravens | 20.9 pts | 1.5 pts |
| Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns 16.8 – 19.7 Tennessee Titans | Tennessee Titans -3.0 | Cleveland Browns -1.5 | 36.5 | 36.5 | Cleveland Browns 27 – 24 Tennessee Titans | 6.0 pts | 14.5 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys 24.6 – 18.9 Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys -5.7 | Dallas Cowboys -4.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | Dallas Cowboys 38 – 21 Philadelphia Eagles | 11.3 pts | 15.5 pts |
| Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos 25.8 – 18.7 Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos -7.0 | Denver Broncos -4.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | Denver Broncos 30 – 16 Arizona Cardinals | 7.0 pts | 1.5 pts |
| Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers 25.4 – 30.1 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions -4.7 | Detroit Lions -3.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 | Green Bay Packers 17 – 20 Detroit Lions | 1.7 pts | 18.5 pts |
| Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings | Indianapolis Colts 16.4 – 25.1 Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings -8.8 | Minnesota Vikings -6.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | Indianapolis Colts 10 – 16 Minnesota Vikings | 2.8 pts | 15.5 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks | Kansas City Chiefs 21.3 – 22.2 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -0.9 | Seattle Seahawks -3.0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 3 – 20 Seattle Seahawks | 16.1 pts | 20.5 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams 25.1 – 24.4 Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams -0.7 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | Los Angeles Rams 35 – 21 Las Vegas Raiders | 13.3 pts | 6.5 pts |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | Miami Dolphins 19.1 – 20.4 New York Jets | New York Jets -1.2 | New York Jets -3.5 | 39.5 | 39.5 | Miami Dolphins 28 – 25 New York Jets | 4.2 pts | 13.5 pts |
| New England Patriots at Chicago Bears | New England Patriots 24.8 – 25.7 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -0.8 | Chicago Bears -3.0 | 50.5 | 50.5 | New England Patriots 24 – 30 Chicago Bears | 5.2 pts | 3.5 pts |
| New York Giants at Houston Texans | New York Giants 19.1 – 23.4 Houston Texans | Houston Texans -4.4 | Houston Texans -10.0 | 42.5 | 42.5 | New York Giants 27 – 21 Houston Texans | 10.4 pts | 5.5 pts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers 23.6 – 19.9 New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 | 43.5 | 43.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – 10 New Orleans Saints | 2.4 pts | 17.5 pts |
| San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers 27.8 – 21.7 Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers -6.2 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | San Francisco 49ers 20 – 29 Atlanta Falcons | 15.2 pts | 0.5 pts |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.5 – 24.0 Carolina Panthers | Carolina Panthers -3.6 | Carolina Panthers -3.0 | 44.5 | 44.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43 – 13 Carolina Panthers | 33.6 pts | 11.5 pts |
Week 614 games · 14 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals 20.6 – 30.9 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams -10.2 | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | Arizona Cardinals 18 – 16 Los Angeles Rams | 12.2 pts | 17.5 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens 22.3 – 17.2 Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens -5.1 | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | 39.5 | 39.5 | Baltimore Ravens 10 – 13 Cleveland Browns | 8.1 pts | 16.5 pts |
| Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills 30.3 – 23.2 Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills -7.1 | Buffalo Bills -5.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | Buffalo Bills 33 – 30 Las Vegas Raiders | 4.1 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers 21.8 – 17.7 Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers -4.1 | Carolina Panthers -3.0 | 39.5 | 39.5 | Carolina Panthers 25 – 14 Philadelphia Eagles | 6.9 pts | 0.5 pts |
| Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears 25.2 – 26.3 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons -1.1 | Chicago Bears -1.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | Chicago Bears 31 – 23 Atlanta Falcons | 9.1 pts | 2.5 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys 27.0 – 26.5 Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys -0.6 | Dallas Cowboys -1.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | Dallas Cowboys 13 – 23 Green Bay Packers | 10.6 pts | 17.5 pts |
| Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans 18.7 – 23.8 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -5.1 | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 | Houston Texans 34 – 31 Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.1 pts | 22.5 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers 15.0 – 26.5 Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 | Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 6 – 22 Kansas City Chiefs | 4.5 pts | 13.5 pts |
| New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | New Orleans Saints 21.2 – 25.3 New York Giants | New York Giants -4.0 | New Orleans Saints -1.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 | New Orleans Saints 34 – 27 New York Giants | 11.0 pts | 14.5 pts |
| New York Jets at New England Patriots | New York Jets 17.0 – 26.5 New England Patriots | New England Patriots -9.6 | New England Patriots -7.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | New York Jets 19 – 26 New England Patriots | 2.6 pts | 1.5 pts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers 20.8 – 17.7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.1 | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.9 pts | 6.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks 20.5 – 20.0 Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks -0.5 | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | Seattle Seahawks 14 – 17 Denver Broncos | 3.5 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans 19.3 – 24.2 Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts -5.0 | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | Tennessee Titans 26 – 20 Indianapolis Colts | 11.0 pts | 2.5 pts |
| Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | Washington Commanders 20.4 – 31.1 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -10.7 | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | Washington Commanders 17 – 23 San Francisco 49ers | 4.7 pts | 11.5 pts |
Week 515 games · 15 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens 21.0 – 24.8 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons -3.8 | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | 45.7 · ridge head | 44.5 | Baltimore Ravens 30 – 23 Atlanta Falcons | 10.8 pts | 7.3 pts |
| Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills 26.6 – 24.3 Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills -2.3 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 51.0 · ridge head | 55.5 | Buffalo Bills 37 – 34 Los Angeles Rams | 0.7 pts | 20.0 pts |
| Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears 24.3 – 19.6 Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears -4.7 | Chicago Bears -1.5 | 43.9 · ridge head | 46.5 | Chicago Bears 7 – 31 Green Bay Packers | 28.7 pts | 5.9 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals 23.8 – 19.7 Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals -4.1 | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | 43.5 · ridge head | 44.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 31 – 24 Miami Dolphins | 2.9 pts | 11.5 pts |
| Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | Cleveland Browns 19.6 – 21.2 New York Jets | New York Jets -1.6 | New York Jets -2.5 | 40.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Cleveland Browns 12 – 17 New York Jets | 3.4 pts | 11.8 pts |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos 27.0 – 19.3 Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos -7.7 | Denver Broncos -3.5 | 46.3 · ridge head | 42.5 | Denver Broncos 23 – 17 Los Angeles Chargers | 1.7 pts | 6.3 pts |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions 28.3 – 21.6 Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions -6.7 | Detroit Lions -5.5 | 49.8 · ridge head | 55.5 | Detroit Lions 45 – 21 Arizona Cardinals | 17.3 pts | 16.2 pts |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans 22.7 – 21.3 Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans -1.4 | Houston Texans -6.5 | 44.1 · ridge head | 37.5 | Houston Texans 26 – 3 Tennessee Titans | 21.6 pts | 15.1 pts |
| Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts 20.4 – 25.0 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 | 45.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | Indianapolis Colts 22 – 34 Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.4 pts | 10.5 pts |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders 21.9 – 19.7 New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders -2.2 | New England Patriots -3.5 | 41.6 · ridge head | 45.5 | Las Vegas Raiders 17 – 45 New England Patriots | 30.2 pts | 20.4 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings 26.0 – 21.7 New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings -4.4 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 | 47.7 · ridge head | 41.5 | Minnesota Vikings 23 – 13 New Orleans Saints | 5.6 pts | 11.7 pts |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York Giants 23.5 – 21.0 Washington Commanders | New York Giants -2.5 | Washington Commanders -3.5 | 44.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | New York Giants 27 – 27 Washington Commanders | 2.5 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia Eagles 16.7 – 26.0 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -9.3 | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 | 42.8 · ridge head | 41.5 | Philadelphia Eagles 17 – 19 Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.3 pts | 6.8 pts |
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers 21.5 – 23.0 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 | Seattle Seahawks -3.0 | 44.5 · ridge head | 46.5 | San Francisco 49ers 32 – 29 Seattle Seahawks | 4.5 pts | 16.5 pts |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.0 – 28.1 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys -7.1 | Dallas Cowboys -9.5 | 49.1 · ridge head | 49.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – 16 Dallas Cowboys | 15.1 pts | 9.1 pts |
Week 416 games · 16 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | Arizona Cardinals 22.4 – 23.2 New York Giants | New York Giants -0.8 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 | 45.5 · ridge head | 44.5 | Arizona Cardinals 24 – 36 New York Giants | 11.2 pts | 14.5 pts |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons 24.6 – 23.5 New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons -1.1 | New Orleans Saints -1.5 | 48.1 · ridge head | 47.5 | Atlanta Falcons 45 – 24 New Orleans Saints | 19.9 pts | 20.9 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Dallas Cowboys 21.5 – 22.9 Houston Texans | Houston Texans -1.3 | Houston Texans -3.0 | 44.4 · ridge head | 48.5 | Dallas Cowboys 34 – 30 Houston Texans | 5.3 pts | 19.6 pts |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | Denver Broncos 18.9 – 25.4 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -6.6 | San Francisco 49ers -3.0 | 44.3 · ridge head | 48.5 | Denver Broncos 14 – 24 San Francisco 49ers | 3.4 pts | 6.3 pts |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions 26.4 – 23.6 Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions -2.9 | Detroit Lions -4.5 | 50.0 · ridge head | 52.5 | Detroit Lions 26 – 32 Carolina Panthers | 8.9 pts | 8.0 pts |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers 23.6 – 23.3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers -0.2 | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | 46.9 · ridge head | 38.5 | Green Bay Packers 17 – 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.8 pts | 15.9 pts |
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | Indianapolis Colts 26.1 – 26.9 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders -0.7 | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | 53.0 · ridge head | 46.5 | Indianapolis Colts 30 – 13 Washington Commanders | 17.7 pts | 10.0 pts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars 23.3 – 22.4 Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars -0.9 | Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | 45.6 · ridge head | 51.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – 17 Cincinnati Bengals | 4.1 pts | 6.6 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs 26.3 – 20.5 Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs -5.8 | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | 46.8 · ridge head | 47.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 30 – 27 Las Vegas Raiders | 2.8 pts | 10.2 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Chargers 16.6 – 28.2 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -11.6 | Seattle Seahawks -7.0 | 44.7 · ridge head | 42.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 23 – 30 Seattle Seahawks | 4.6 pts | 8.3 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams 24.2 – 19.8 Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams -4.4 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 43.9 · ridge head | 42.5 | Los Angeles Rams 24 – 20 Philadelphia Eagles | 0.4 pts | 0.1 pts |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Miami Dolphins 20.0 – 29.8 Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings -9.7 | Minnesota Vikings -10.0 | 49.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Miami Dolphins 10 – 15 Minnesota Vikings | 4.7 pts | 24.8 pts |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots 16.5 – 26.6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -10.0 | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | 43.1 · ridge head | 49.5 | New England Patriots 29 – 26 Buffalo Bills | 13.0 pts | 11.9 pts |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | New York Jets 18.3 – 26.6 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -8.3 | Chicago Bears -3.5 | 44.8 · ridge head | 43.5 | New York Jets 12 – 23 Chicago Bears | 2.7 pts | 9.8 pts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers 20.7 – 21.1 Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns -0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | 41.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – 27 Cleveland Browns | 2.5 pts | 9.2 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans 17.6 – 28.6 Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens -11.0 | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 46.2 · ridge head | 42.5 | Tennessee Titans 18 – 24 Baltimore Ravens | 5.0 pts | 4.2 pts |
Week 316 games · 16 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals 15.3 – 26.7 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -11.4 | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | 42.0 · ridge head | 48.5 | Arizona Cardinals 30 – 36 San Francisco 49ers | 5.4 pts | 24.0 pts |
| Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | Atlanta Falcons 20.9 – 23.4 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers -2.4 | Green Bay Packers -4.5 | 44.3 · ridge head | 43.5 | Atlanta Falcons 35 – 14 Green Bay Packers | 23.4 pts | 4.7 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens 24.6 – 23.4 Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens -1.1 | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | 48.0 · ridge head | 53.5 | Baltimore Ravens 34 – 31 Dallas Cowboys | 1.9 pts | 17.0 pts |
| Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | Carolina Panthers 24.8 – 25.7 Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns -0.9 | Carolina Panthers -2.5 | 50.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | Carolina Panthers 18 – 21 Cleveland Browns | 2.1 pts | 11.5 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals 21.1 – 19.1 Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals -2.0 | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | 40.2 · ridge head | 42.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 27 – 30 Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.0 pts | 16.8 pts |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans 23.9 – 23.4 Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans -0.6 | Houston Texans -1.5 | 47.3 · ridge head | 41.5 | Houston Texans 17 – 19 Indianapolis Colts | 2.6 pts | 11.3 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs 25.9 – 18.7 Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs -7.2 | Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 | 44.6 · ridge head | 45.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 24 – 10 Miami Dolphins | 6.8 pts | 10.6 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Chargers 19.6 – 30.6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -11.0 | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | 50.2 · ridge head | 50.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 16 – 24 Buffalo Bills | 3.0 pts | 10.2 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Rams 19.5 – 24.0 Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos -4.5 | Denver Broncos -1.5 | 43.5 · ridge head | 43.5 | Los Angeles Rams 26 – 30 Denver Broncos | 0.5 pts | 12.5 pts |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | Las Vegas Raiders 23.0 – 26.2 New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints -3.2 | New Orleans Saints -3.5 | 49.2 · ridge head | 43.5 | Las Vegas Raiders 35 – 27 New Orleans Saints | 11.2 pts | 12.8 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings 22.8 – 21.9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings -0.8 | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | 44.7 · ridge head | 42.5 | Minnesota Vikings 23 – 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.2 pts | 5.7 pts |
| New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots 17.5 – 21.5 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.9 | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 | 39.0 · ridge head | 46.5 | New England Patriots 6 – 35 Jacksonville Jaguars | 25.1 pts | 2.0 pts |
| New York Jets at Detroit Lions | New York Jets 20.4 – 31.2 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions -10.8 | Detroit Lions -7.0 | 51.6 · ridge head | 49.5 | New York Jets 24 – 31 Detroit Lions | 3.8 pts | 3.4 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles 22.7 – 23.9 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -1.2 | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 | 46.5 · ridge head | 42.5 | Philadelphia Eagles 7 – 27 Chicago Bears | 18.8 pts | 12.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks 27.5 – 18.1 Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Seattle Seahawks -8.5 | 45.6 · ridge head | 40.5 | Seattle Seahawks 31 – 33 Washington Commanders | 11.5 pts | 18.4 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at New York Giants | Tennessee Titans 19.3 – 23.9 New York Giants | New York Giants -4.7 | New York Giants -2.5 | 43.2 · ridge head | 37.5 | Tennessee Titans 7 – 12 New York Giants | 0.3 pts | 24.2 pts |