Report Card — Week 6
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F6-843% covered
We covered 43% of decided picks, and 39% once the close calls are evened out. That is below the 52% we need to break even, so it earns an F. Of the 8 misses, 7 were our own error and 1 was bad luck.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | DEN | +2.5 | 14-17 | +5.5 | — | We took Broncos +2.5 and Broncos won 17-14. We finished 6 points past the line. |
| HOU @ JAX | JAX | -2.5 | 34-31 | -5.5 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 6 points wrong against the line. Our projection had Jaguars winning by about 5, and we missed the final margin by about 8 points. |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | -4.5 | 10-13 | -7.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 8 points short of the line. Turnovers went against Ravens, minus 1. |
| CAR @ PHI | CAR | +1.5 | 25-14 | +12.5 | — | We beat the spread by 13 points. |
| CHI @ ATL | ATL | +3 | 31-23 | -5 | Model error | Falcons lost the turnover battle by 2. |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | +1.5 | 34-27 | -5.5 | Model error | We got this game wrong by 6 points against the spread. Giants gave the ball away 3 more times than Saints. |
| NYJ @ NE | NYJ | +7.5 | 19-26 | +0.5 | Lucky hit | We sneaked past the number by half a point. |
| PIT @ TB | TB | +2.5 | 26-19 | -4.5 | Model error | We missed the line by 5 points, too wide to call bad luck. |
| TEN @ IND | TEN | +7 | 26-20 | +13 | — | That cleared the number by 13 points. Turnovers favoured Titans, plus 2. |
| ARI @ LA | LA | -12.5 | 18-16 | -14.5 | Model error | Cardinals covered by 14.5. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| BUF @ LV | BUF | -5 | 33-30 | -2 | Luck | We fell 2 points short, close enough to put down to luck. Bills came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
| LAC @ KC | KC | -8.5 | 6-22 | +7.5 | — | A clean cover, 8 points to the good. |
| DAL @ GB | DAL | +1.5 | 13-23 | -8.5 | Model error | We misread this game; backing Cowboys cost us 8.5 points. |
| WAS @ SF | WAS | +7.5 | 17-23 | +1.5 | Lucky hit | We covered by only 2 points, so this one could easily have gone the other way. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-10-15: The score model now publishes the posted total as its most likely total, so predicted scores stop drifting away from the market's number (Thursday's total went from 43.3 to 40.5). (PR #32)
- 2026-10-16: A week entered on Yahoo by hand is recorded pick by pick, and its tiebreakers are kept exactly as entered instead of being worked out again. (PR #35)
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.