Report Card — Week 7
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A8-5-162% covered
We covered 62% of decided picks, and 69% once the close calls are evened out. That is well clear of the 52% we need to break even, so it earns an A. Of the 5 misses, 2 were our own error and 3 were bad luck.
A push is shown here; Yahoo's record leaves it out.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHI | NE | +3 | 24-30 | -3 | Luck | We took Patriots +3 and Bears won 30-24. It slipped away by 3 points, the kind of miss one play decides. |
| PIT @ NO | PIT | -3.5 | 16-10 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | It was close: we got there by 3 points. Our projection had Steelers winning by about 4, and we missed the final margin by about 2 points. |
| CIN @ BAL | CIN | +2.5 | 35-13 | +24.5 | — | We covered by 25 points, comfortably clear of the line. Bengals won the turnover battle by 1. |
| CLE @ TEN | TEN | +1.5 | 27-24 | -1.5 | Luck | One more score and this was a cover; we missed by 2 points. |
| IND @ MIN | MIN | -6.5 | 10-16 | -0.5 | Luck | We missed the line by just half a point, well inside one score, so this was mostly bad luck. Vikings came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
| MIA @ NYJ | MIA | +4.5 | 28-25 | +7.5 | — | A clean cover, 8 points to the good. Turnovers favoured Dolphins, plus 1. |
| NYG @ HOU | NYG | +10 | 27-21 | +16 | — | We finished 16 points past the line. |
| SF @ ATL | SF | -3.5 | 20-29 | -12.5 | Model error | 49ers gave the ball away 4 more times than Falcons. |
| TB @ CAR | TB | +3.5 | 43-13 | +33.5 | — | That cleared the number by 34 points. |
| DEN @ ARI | DEN | -4.5 | 30-16 | +9.5 | — | We beat the spread by 10 points. |
| GB @ DET | GB | +3 | 17-20 | push | — | Packers landed exactly on the number, so the pick is a push. |
| LA @ LV | LA | -4.5 | 35-21 | +9.5 | — | Turnovers went against Rams, minus 2. |
| KC @ SEA | KC | +2.5 | 3-20 | -14.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 15 points short of the line. |
| DAL @ PHI | DAL | -4.5 | 38-21 | +12.5 | — | Cowboys cleared -4.5 with room to spare. |
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.